Cup of Coffee: June 24, 2024

Good morning!

In today’s newsletter we witness the return of Max Scherzer, we likewise bear witness to a new kind of walkoff win, a pitcher gets a contract extension and shoves on the same weekend, a notable young player gets handed a PED suspension, and the Yankees have a new injury and a new player.

In Other Stuff we check in with the Calcaterra family group chat, we look at what happened in the latest planet-killer asteroid war games, we try to predict what will happen when grocery stores get an even greater ability to gouge you than they already have, and we talk about why writers write and why AI is anathema to that.

Let’s go.

And That Happened 

Here are the scores. Here are the highlights:

Rangers 4, Royals 0: Max Scherzer made his first start of 2024 and it was a good one: five shutout innings, one hit, zero runs, zero walks and four strikeouts. The fourth of those Ks brought him up to 3,371 which ties him with Greg Maddux for 11th place on the all-time list. Welcome back Max. Texas shuts out Kansas City for the second straight day. Indeed, the Royals were shutout for the final 22 innings of the series. The Rangers have won four in a row.

Phillies 4, Diamondbacks 1: It was a good weekend to be Christopher Sánchez. On Saturday news broke that he and the Phillies agreed to a contract extension (I write about that down below in The Daily Briefing) and yesterday he shut out the Dbacks for seven innings, allowing just three hits while picking up his fifth win of the year. All of the Phillies’ runs came on RBI singles, with David Dahl’s going for two runs and Nick Castellanos and Bryson Stott knocking in a single run apiece. Philly takes two of three.

Atlanta 3, Yankees 1: Max Fried (6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 4K) outdueled Nestor Cortes (7 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 7K). Jarred Kelenic homered and hit a sac fly and Atlanta’s third run came via an Ozzie Albies RBI single. Atlanta takes two of three from the Yankees and has won eight of ten overall.

Rays 3, Pirates 1: It was Paul Skenes Day and he was fantastic, allowing just one run on six hits and striking out eight while consistently pumping triple digits over seven innings. You need run support to win in this game, however, and he didn’t get any thanks to Aaron Civale allowing just one over five and the Rays pen no-hitting the Buccos for the final four frames. Yandy Díaz’s leadoff solo homer was the only damage Tampa Bay inflicted on Skenes but after he left Randy Arozarena hit a sac fly for the go-ahead run and then Richie Palacios singled home some insurance.

Red Sox 7, Reds 4: Connor Wong and Rob Refsnyder each hit two-run homers and Jarren Duran went 3-for-5 with a double and two RBI. Boston has won seven of eight. If the season ended today they’d be the third Wild Card team in the AL. They’d also be super shocked given that it’s only June 24.

Tigers 11, White Sox 2: The White Sox starting pitcher yesterday was named Jonathan Cannon and, folks, Cannon got shelled. It was 5-0 Detroit after one and 9-0 after two, with Cannon giving up eight of those runs. Colt Keith and Akil Baddoo homered in the first and Riley Greene went deep in the second. They started that second inning with eight straight singles so it was just a giant mess for the Chisox. This from a Tigers team who had only scored six runs in its previous six games combined.

Marlins 6, Mariners 4: Miami also jumped out to an early lead, scoring four runs in the first and plating all six of their runs by the end of three, after which they held on. Nick Gordon and Jesús Sánchez homered and Jazz Chisholm Jr. had two hits and an RBI as the Fish take two of three from the M’s.

Astros 8, Orioles 1: Framber Valdez (all together now) pitched seven strong innings, allowing one run on six hits while striking out seven. Jose Altuve hit a leadoff homer as Houston put up a tone-setting four-spot to start the game. Yainer Díaz had Jeremy Pena each had three RBI. Díaz’s came on a single and two sac flies. Pena’s came via two RBI doubles. The Astros sweep the series and win their fifth game in a row.

Cardinals 5, Giants 3: Sonny Gray was perfect into the seventh inning before giving up a solo shot to Patrick Bailey. He got through the inning though and while the Cards pen bent a tad it didn’t break. Alec Burleson drove in two, Brendan Donovan and Matt Carpenter each knocked one in, and the Giants’ old friend Brandon Crawford added an insurance RBI double in the eighth to secure the sweep for St. Louis.

Nationals 2, Rockies 1: Rockies pitchers had Nats batters totally stymied for eight innings, with Kyle Freeland tossing six shutout frames and Nick Mears blanking Washington for two more. Still, it was close as the Rockies had managed only one run off of Jake Irvin, who struck out ten batters over six. The Nationals broke through in the ninth, however, plating two via a game-tying RBI double from Lane Thomas and a go-ahead RBI single from Joey Meneses. The Nationals take the series and continue to hover just under .500.

Guardians 6, Blue Jays 5: Steven Kwan and Josh Naylor hit solo homers — Kwan’s batting average actually went down to .390 on the day — and the Guardians scored five runs between the third and fourth innings to pull ahead and to pull away. Blue Jays rookie Spencer Horwitz hit two homers, but both led off innings so they were only solo shots. The Jays have lost six straight.

Twins 3, Athletics 0: Twins starter Pablo López had no trouble with the A’s bats, tossing eight shutout innings allowing just two hits, and striking out 14 batters. So, yeah, that’ll do. On Saturday Twins starter Bailey Ober tossed a complete game on only 89 pitches, so great effort from the A’s bats this weekend. Byron Buxton homered and doubled in a run. Minnesota takes two of three.

Brewers 6, Padres 2: Tobias Myers was solid (5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER) and Blake Perkins knocks in a couple as Milwaukee salvages one.

Mets 5. Cubs 2: Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo went back-to-back in the third, Mark Vientos went deep in the eighth, and Luis Severino was on-point, tossing six shutout innings with ten strikeouts as the Mets spoil Ryne Sandberg Day at Wrigley Field. Of course they can’t do it without a hitch as Edwin Díaz was ejected for having an illegal foreign substance on his hands and will now be suspended for ten games as well. But hey, a win’s a win.

The Daily Briefing

Baseball’s first-ever walkoff pitch clock violation

On Saturday night the Rockies beat the Nationals 8-7, and did it in a walkoff. But it was not a walkoff hit or even a sacrifice fly or something. It was a walkoff pitch clock violation by Nats pitcher Kyle Finnegan. Watch:

It was the first game decided by a pitch-clock violation in major league history. And it’s probably appropriate that it was Finnegan, as he leads the league in pitch-clock violations this season with nine. His response after the game:

"I'm just trying to focus on the pitch and then location. I thought I picked up the clock. I guess by the time I picked up and looked at the catcher and delivered the pitch, I was just a hair too late.”

I suppose that’s what happens when you’re taught to “execute pitches” instead of, you know, simply pitching.

Phillies sign Christopher Sánchez to a four-year extension

As noted above in the recaps, the Phillies and lefty Cristopher Sánchez have agreed to a four-year $22.5 million extension covering the 2025-28 seasons. Sánchez was to become arbitration eligible after the 2025 season, so it buys out all three of his arbitration years. Philadelphia likewise has two option years, so the club gains two years of control in what would’ve been Sánchez’s free agent period.

The breakdown: Sanchez gets a $2 million signing bonus. His 2025 salary will be $1.5 million, it will double to $3 million in 2026, double again to $6 million in 2027, and go up to $9 million in 2028. The 2029 option is for $14 million with a $1 million buyout and the 2030 option is for $15 million with a $1 million buyout. There are escalator clauses for the option years based on finishing in the top-ten in the Cy Young balloting. This year Sanchez, who is 27, is on a one-year deal for $753,500.

Sánchez, who is in his fourth season in the bigs, is 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 15 starts in 2024, with 70 strikeouts and 24 walks in 84.1 innings. The key to his success so far has been limiting the longball, as he’s given up only one home run all year long.

Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are under contract through the next several seasons and Ranger Suárez is eligible for free agency after 2025. Figure the club starts talking to Suárez next in an effort to keep this band together for as long as it can.

Blue Jays infielder suspended for PEDs

Blue Jays infielder Orelvis Martínez has been suspended for 80 games for testing positive for the substance Clomiphene. Which is a drug used to treat women experiencing fertility problems but which has been shown to be a testosterone booster in men. Either way, it’s a banned substance under the Joint Drug program.

Martínez, 22, is considered to be the top hitting prospect in the Blue Jays organization. He has played 118 Triple-A games over the past two years and has hit to the tune of .261/.342/.516 with 27 homers down in Buffalo. He has played exactly one major league game, and it was this past Friday following his callup in response to Bo Bichette being placed on the IL. He went 1-for-3 and was stranded.

Following the announcement of the suspension, Martínez issued a statement in which he said that he was prescribed the drug by a fertility clinic while he was trying to start a family with his girlfriend. He said:

"We wanted to keep this matter private, even within our family, and trusted the doctor who assured us this treatment did not include performance-enhancing drugs," Martinez said in the statement. "Therefore, I made the mistake of not disclosing this to my team or the MLBPA.

"With that said, I took full responsibility for my negligence and accepted my suspension."

Via the Joint Drug policy, players have access to a comprehensive list of drugs which are banned and the ability to inquire about it if one is unsure. It’s also a strict liability situation so the reasons for testing positive, even if the player inadvertently ingests a banned substance, are irrelevant. So thanks for the explanation, Orelvis, but we’ll see you in September.

Giancarlo Stanton hits the IL with a strained hammy

Death. Taxes. Giancarlo Stanton going on the injured list. And such it is again, as the Yankees DH was placed on the IL yesterday after straining his left hamstring in Saturday’s win over Atlanta.

Stanton had doubled in the fourth inning and then winced when he rounded third base when Gleyber Torres' doubled him in. He was removed from the game after that.

This is the eighth time in six seasons Stanton has been on the IL. It has caused him to miss nearly 40% of his team’s games since joining the Yankees. He missed considerable time last year with a strain of the same left hamstring. During last November’s GM meetings, Brian Cashman caught some heat for saying “[Stanton is] going to wind up getting hurt again more likely than not because it seems to be part of his game." Welp, he wasn’t wrong.

Stanton is hitting .246/.302/.492 (120 OPS+) with 18 homers on the year. There’s no timeline yet for his return, but he was scheduled to have some imaging yesterday that will shed some light on the severity of the injury. All of this, of course, is made worse by last week’s injury to Jasson Domínguez, as he would no doubt be called up to replace Stanton on the roster if he were healthy.

The Yankees acquire J.D. Davis

The Yankees acquired first baseman J.D. Davis from the Athletics yesterday along with cash considerations in exchange for minor league infielder Jordan Groshans.

Davis, who had been DFA’d by Oakland last week, is hitting .236/.304/.366 (96 OPS+) with four homers in 39 games on the year. That’s not exactly gonna move the needle, but with Anthony Rizzo and Stanton hurt, the Bombers need some warm bodies.

Other Stuff

Meanwhile, in the family group chat . . .

My family group chat is not like yours:

For the record, his mother and I both strongly suggested the I, Robot idea over the human flesh noodles idea. He’s almost 19 years old so he’s gonna do what he wants, of course, but I figure he wouldn’t ask if he wasn’t at least partially seeking our approval.

What would we do if we learned an asteroid was set to slam into Earth in 14 years?

I mean, besides soil our trousers.

That question was posed to NASA and FEMA experts during something called the “Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise” held at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. They’ve been playing this game of Tragic: The Gathering every other year for the past ten years or so.

In this scenario, the players of the game were told that a never-before-seen asteroid has been discovered speeding in the direction of Earth, carrying with it a 72-percent chance of a direct strike on July 12, 2038. It’s still too far away to definitively gauge its size, but the diameter could be anywhere from 80-800 meters, which ranges from “kills hundreds of thousands or even millions” to “close enough to so-called ‘planet-killer’ size (1KM) that it will basically kill the planet or come damn close to it.” So yeah, a global extinction event is on the table.

The good news is that the experts actually have a plan for this, which I’ll get to in a moment. But the human factors at play — human factors which are pretty on-the-nose given the times in which we live — will make putting the plan into action pretty difficult separate and apart from the technological challenges:

One of the main domestic issues would be the likelihood that the US Congress would be “unlikely to act until impact is certain.” Similarly, funding in general to prevent the possible tragedy may be hard to coax from governments until convincing evidence of an impending threat is presented—an obvious issue, given that time would be of the essence, even with a 14-year heads up. And then there’s the all-but-certain tidal waves of dis- and misinformation to debunk for the public.

I have zero doubt, based on everything going on in the world right now, that if scientists presented a 72% chance of mass extinction, a significant portion of at least this country, poisoned by misinformation, would reject it out of hand just as they’ve rejected vaccines, climate change, and all sorts of other things. There would almost certainly be politicians who would run on the idea that the scientists are wrong and that everything will be fine. I didn’t see the movie “Don’t Look Up” because the reviews made it sound sorta obvious and pedantic, but I figure it’d play out roughly like that.

If we are able to get past that hurdle, however, we at least have some ideas. The best one is an updated version of NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission from a couple of years ago. You probably remember that one even if you don’t remember its name. It was the thing where we shot a spacecraft the size of a car at an asteroid called Dimorphos while it orbited a larger meteor, Didymos. The fun part of that is that it had a camera on it and we all got to watch it impact in more or less real time. The significant part of it was that, though expectations for success were low, the spacecraft’s impact actually altered the orbit of Dimorphos. It was pretty badass. Personally, I thought it was one of the most inspiring moments of recent human history, and I’m not even remotely joking. I get chills thinking about it even now and then I wanna break out into a verse or two of “HUMANITY: FUCK YEAH!”

So, if we did have a 14-year heads up, the plan would be first send up a probe to do a flyby of the potential planet-killer to assess the cut of its jib. Then, once we knew said cut, we’d launch DART 2 — which would hopefully consist of something bigger than a car — in an effort to redirect the planet-killer.

Unless of course a Republican is president, in which case we’d defund NASA in order to pass a tax cut for the wealthy while offering preemptive thoughts and prayers to everyone who will be vaporized by the planet-killer.

Oh, you sweet summer child 

NPR had a story the other day about how grocery stores are moving to electronic price labels on shelves, replacing the little stickers or paper signs under items. There are a number of things this will enable, including the ability to deliver better product information to customers and to make inventory processes more efficient. But let’s be real here: this is about giving stores the ability to implement Uber-style surge pricing:

Grocery store prices are changing faster than ever before — literally. This month, Walmart became the latest retailer to announce it’s replacing the price stickers in its aisles with electronic shelf labels. The new labels allow employees to change prices as often as every ten seconds . . . “If it’s hot outside, we can raise the price of water and ice cream. If there's something that’s close to the expiration date, we can lower the price — that’s the good news,” said Phil Lempert, a grocery industry analyst.

Before we go on, can we all agree that if you’re the sort of person who says “if it’s hot outside, we can raise the price of water” that you are gonna burn in Hell forever? OK, thanks, I’m glad we’re all of the same mind on that one.

Obviously, the grocery stores will not admit that surge pricing is what these labels are all about. They no doubt saw how Wendy’s got its ass handed to it when executives admitted that they planned to use their electronic menus to do surge pricing at drive-thrus, so the Wal-Marts, Whole Foods, and Krogers of the world are all talking about “efficiency” and other vague, undefined concepts.

Then there are some people who are in outright denial. Like this Wharton School professor who has apparently become a noted expert on retail grocery stores while, somehow, being wholly naive about how they operate:

While the labels give retailers the ability to increase prices suddenly, Gallino doubts companies like Walmart will take advantage of the technology in that way.

“To be honest, I don’t think that’s the underlying main driver of this,” Gallino said. “These are companies that tend to have a long-term relationship with their customers and I think the risk of frustrating them could be too risky, so I would be surprised if they try to do that.”

Yeah, grocery stores would never do that. Perish the thought!

Anyway, if you need me, I’ll be in Philadelphia. There’s a business professor at Wharton who seems like the perfect buyer for the bridge inventory I’ve been stockpiling and I need to strike while the iron is hot.

David Simon on AI

An excerpt from an NPR interview with “The Wire” creator David Simon blew up over the weekend. Given that the interview actually took place in May 2023 it’s kind of weird that it’s blowing up now, but the Internet works in mysterious ways. Either way, it’s got such a pithy exchange in it that I get why it blew up, even if it was a delayed explosion:

ARI SHAPIRO: OK, so you've spent your career creating television without AI, and I could imagine today you thinking, boy, I wish I had had that tool to solve those thorny problems...

DAVID SIMON: What?

SHAPIRO: ...Or saying...

SIMON: You imagine that?

SHAPIRO: ...Boy, if that had existed, it would have screwed me over.

SIMON: I don't think AI can remotely challenge what writers do at a fundamentally creative level.

SHAPIRO: But if you're trying to transition from scene five to scene six, and you're stuck with that transition, you could imagine plugging that portion of the script into an AI and say, give me 10 ideas for how to transition this.

SIMON: I'd rather put a gun in my mouth.

That’s a pretty David Simon way to put that but, yeah, I get it.

I’m not a creative writer like Simon is, but the same considerations apply. The satisfaction of writing does not come from simply getting done, which is what Shapiro suggests AI can help a writer do. Indeed, most writers feel at least somewhat ambivalent about their final product, even if it’s objectively great, so simply finishing often brings with it an unsettling feeling of anticlimax.

Rather, the essence of writing — the the thing that gives writers that dopamine kick and which makes us never want to do anything else — is the actual act of writing. And yes, that includes working through the tough problems. I suppose that may seem weird to people whose last experience with writing was freshman composition class, after which they vowed never to write again unless forced to do so, but I assure you, writers enjoy writing. We really do! It’s not like we’re in this for the money or the glory, that’s for damn sure, because there’s very little of either of those things for most of us in this business.

Things we do like: figuring out that transition between scene five to scene six. Figuring out how to fix the plot problem. Or, in the sort of writing I do, linking up argument one with argument two, finding the apt analogy, the apt turns of phrase, the rhetorical throughline, or the dumb joke that had eluded me. Every time I’ve experienced a fist-pumping moment as a writer — every time I’ve felt like I’m doing what I am meant to be doing with my life — it has come in the middle of the process. At a time when I’ve overcome some problem with whatever it is I was working on and made it on to the next step.

Does that mean that writers shouldn’t use technology to help the process along? Of course not. Where would I be without spellcheck or the ability to look up virtually anything I need to look up without having to own a giant personal library or take research trips out of my home every day? And lord knows that, given my writing style and process — barf it all onto the page and work backwards to come up with something moderately readable — I never would’ve made it in this business in the days of typewriters and paper.

But there’s a difference between using technology to augment the creative process and using technology to abrogate it. To suggest the later is to fundamentally misunderstand what it is to be a writer. It misses the point entirely.

Have a great day everyone.

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